WiiU spec rumours incoming...IGNORE! EVASIVE MANOEUVRES! I'M DOWN!

Nintendo WiiU Specs keep popping up. I could link to about ten different projections over the last few weeks. The problem with these is, like when every console is getting closer - that they have no anchor in reality. When someone says "2x Xbox 360" to you, what images does that conjure in your mind?

The problem is with these unquantifiable reports that are ultimately meaningless. Kind of like this post. I'd love to read some official tech specs - proper ones - but Nintendo is extremely unlikely to trumpet them (and that is a stance I applaud). Ultimately, hardware should be important to Nintendo. They can't launch first and get left behind (like the Dreamcast, for example). I don't think an early lead is a long-term plan. In fact, I think Microsoft were extremely lucky that in the current gen Nintendo decided to ignore stats, and Sony inadvertently crippled their own consoles (dual-CELL design downgraded to single CPU+ancient GPU). I cannot think of any console that has really benefited from a long head start without losing their market for being significantly inferior to the competition hardware-wise. Hmm...PlayStation 2...I guess I can think of one! Though the PS2 may be a poor example, as it was an early release that fared poorly hardware-wise versus Xbox and GCN, but exceeded the Dreamcast.

So please, for the love of all things good and true, ignore the rumours and wait until we see something solid with our own eyes. It will at least match the PS3/360 in terms of power, and I think it would be trivial to exceed them all these years after their release. Nintendo aren't positioning themselves as the '5-year-old hardware guys', so I don't think it's time to be calling out the as-yet unknown WiiU hardware as a failure (though we'll talk about 'game industry analysts' very shortly on an extremely similar topic).

PS4 GPUs and the CELL

PlayStation 4 to use AMD GPUs

This is pretty obvious I think. AMD supply the GPU for the Xbox 360 and the Wii (and the GameCube before that). Microsoft used nVidia chips in the original Xbox, but abandoned them in favour of AMD (then ATi) for reasons I forget (I should probably research that but I'm feeling lazy tonight and I still have a bunch of work to do).

Sony used the junk nVidia chip currently in the PS3 because nVidia were willing to cut them a good deal. nVidia had been snubbed by Microsoft and they were pretty pissed about it. The Radeon core used in the Xbox 360 was also superior to the older design nVidia offered Sony. Presumably this decision was made entirely on price - this is the time that Kutaragi-san was being quietly removed from Sony and a lot of last minute decisions were being made to make the Playstation 3 into a competitive machine (and many of the sacrifices were performance ones - I would love to have seen where the PS3 would be today if it had retained the dual-CELL CPU design originally planned. Prohibitive price would have destroyed the Playstation brand however, in my opinion.

This would be a logical step for Sony. My bigger curiosity is whether Sony will continue to use a CELL-based CPU, given that most of the original design consortium have abandoned it.

Misleading

This headline from Joystiq makes it seem like Apple's new app-sandboxing in Mac OS X Mountain Lion specifically targets games, and the article doesn't bother much to make it any clearer. By default, OS X 10.8 will only run apps from the Mac App Store and third party apps which carry a digital signature. This means all applications, not just games. It can be turned off so that any software will run. The idea is to ensure that applications are doing the right thing - it will decrease the likelihood of running trojans or malware by accident for those less tech-savvy users.

The most obvious thing here is that every major game developer making games for the Mac will sign up immediately for the digital signatures or already distribute through the Mac App Store, so games are actually the least likely application to be affected. Older applications that have been forgotten or abandoned may not work with the higher security level of Gatekeeper (but you can simply turn it off to get functionality back) and applications that do nasty things in places they really shouldn't will also be affected.

I guess (all) the facts don't make for very exciting news though, do they?

No PS4 at E3, PS Vita does the dinosaur, WiiU challenges and the pre-owned game market.

A distraction is enough of an excuse not to reveal the PS4, right? It certainly wouldn't have anything to do with trying to recoup the extraordinary costs of PS3 development by flogging the system for as long as humanly possible, would it?
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Duke Nukem co-creator George Broussard was quoted as saying "The PS Vita launch feels like the last dinosaur showing up to a mammal convention." As a person who works in entertainment (TV) this rings very true to me. Entertainment markets are going through an upheaval that is going to dramatically change their business models in the coming decade or two (only so slowly because they are resisting so hard). The old business models are being disrupted by new technology.

The internet and the compressed audio file upended the music business. Record labels had been warned repeatedly, there are plenty of stories of young executives urging the business to move in and define the market, but because internet distribution would directly impact compact disc sales and their ability to "print money' (Miyamoto and Iwata style) it was resisted. Cue the rise of napster, the advent of internet piracy, and Apple being the only business to step in with a concrete plan to make online music sales painless and profitable.

Television and Film ignored the plight of the record industry, because download limits and speeds, and video compression formats pretty much guaranteed that video piracy would remain niche short-term. Today, however, we have massive amounts of people watching unrestricted HD content the day it is released all around the world, whilst the TV stations and cinemas are seeing lower and lower viewer numbers. Television used to have an easy monopoly - if you wanted to watch programmes, you had to watch TV. Now, with PVRs and time-shifting and bit torrent downloads, why would I ever watch another network commercial? These programmes are paid for by advertising and merchandise sales - but as the advertising revenue dries up due to lack of viewers, where does the market go then?

The video game market is seeing a similar shift, particularly in handhelds (home consoles, you are safe for now, but don't get complacent!) This article outlines precisely a big part of the issue - in Australia (where I'm from) I can get a 3DS or PS Vita game for $69.99 - $89.99, but similar (or sometimes the same game) can be purchased on iOS or Android for $5. Other than physical controls, what justifies the extreme disparity between these, particularly when the handheld console is actually a slight inconvenience to have on my person, whereas my phone goes with me wherever I am? Sony missing the opportunity for convergence is something I wrote about recently. More frustrating when talking about price is the mark up we pay in Australia. Despite our very strong dollar, a new Xbox 360 or PS3 game title is $119.99, whereas in the USA the same game (often identical due to increasing indifference about region locking) is $59.99. Video games are risking pricing themselves out of having a market, and the industry should be concerned.
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This article claims to have all the answers for a strong WiiU launch for Nintendo, and I think it is a mixed bag.

• Start off with a bang. Agree - this is incredibly important. 3DS suffered due to lack of software (the price was arguably a secondary concern). Once the dry spell ended, 3DS sales took off. GameCube suffered similarly. A few (at least two) good core titles would guarantee day one sales, especially if Mario is present. Zelda would blow everyone away, but making a new Zelda game this close to the release of Skyward Sword is unrealistic given the usual development cycle for console Legend of Zelda titles.
• Know its audience. I thought this was going to offer advice leaning towards making sure there were more core experiences but it actually leaned the other way, arguing the case for attracting the casual audience. Whilst I agree that the casual audience is extremely important and will sell hardware, there has been evidence that the core audience software attach rates are extremely low, these are people who buy a Wii for WiiFit, then purchase maybe one or two other titles. This does not make a market for software, only for hardware. A smaller, cheaper Wii with WiiFit embedded as the only software and a Fit Board would have arguably done just as well in the market, and would have had just as much impact on software sales (with the exception of 3rd party fitness titles, and rhythm dance games). If Nintendo want to keep making games for the casual market then that is good, but make sure there is incentive for core players in the same software. WiiSports with online, leader boards, and additional competitive modes would not have hurt the casual experience.
• Get online right. No-brainer. I hate online gaming, but be damned if everyone I know doesn't love it. Heck, I have an Xbox Live Gold account I pay for and rarely use, because if people want to play games with me it will be online. Nintendo have been traditionally weak with software (firmware) and they really need to repair that image. 3DS looks like it is taking good steps in this department, but more needs to be done.
• Share the spotlight. This is in reference to third party developers having a hard time getting traction on Nintendo systems. The tone, however, implies that Nintendo cripples them in some way, to ensure their own success. Whilst this was certainly true in the N64 generation (I'm sure a lot of devs and gamers alike are shaking their fists) Nintendo worked hard to turn this around with the GameCube. GCN struggled with a 'kiddy' image due to the whimsical and friendly look of the console itself (and that cute little carry handle!) Third party devs produced a fair few mature titles for the console, some of which did very well, but it was a problem with image all around. Nintendo made no effort to advertise 3rd party games in any meaningful way, they promised online and then decided it was too much bother (just as online was taking off, look at Halo 2). They also disappointed the core crowd (see above) with Zelda: Wind Waker, cementing in the gaming industry's mind that Nintendo were 'all about the kids', despite Wind Waker being a brilliant game and an achievement. With the Wii, the opposite happened. 3rd party games were junk. As a core gamer I saw little to like. I was offended that a port of Resident Evil 4 was among the best looking games on the platform for a number of years. Nintendo focused on the new casual audience and hoped that third parties would pick up the slack; the reality was a slew of terrible PS2 ports and barely playable half attempts at games (everyone is looking at you, Red Steel). Nintendo have tried sharing the spotlight, the problem is that no-one came in to fill the gap.
• Let players keep their games. This is just about transferring Virtual Console games to WiiU. This is a definite must.

The 'things Nintendo should not do' list was considerably shorter.

• Focus on gimmicks. Nintendo should be careful not to be seen as gimmicky. They have been walking a fine line here since the release of the DS.
• Alienate the hardcore. Ties in with what I said above regarding 'knowing their audience'.
• Ignore other forms of entertainment. This is a must, but the article here refers directly to DVD and Blu-Ray, and I don't believe either of those to be relevant. Nintendo need to make sure they support streaming media - YouTube, Hulu, Netflix, BBC and ABC streaming players - these are where content delivery will be happening and will grow exponentially as newer and better services are added.

I could probably write an article about what Nintendo need to do with WiiU, but that's for another day I think.

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Finally, this bit from Volition design director Jameson Durall discussing his opinion of the rumours that the next Xbox console will block out used games. This is the sort of old-fashioned thinking that will do damage to the video game industry. Pre owned games are a huge market, and a massive profit machine for companies like EB Games and GameStop. The issue is that these games are physical units - when I sell someone a game I owned, or trade it in, I no longer have it. If I get a cabinet and decide to sell it for whatever reason, the cabinet maker is not making it incompatible with anyone else's house.

The looming shift to digital distribution as a primary game source is going to largely prevent this anyway, as game licences will be locked to your user account. This is a model that can work, certainly. Look at the PC software market - in some cases your license is transferrable, in other cases it is not. The approach taken has to be balanced. A look at Apple's Mac App Store shows a model where it works - apps are distributed digitally with a DRM protection that locks the software to your user account. To mitigate collateral damage the software is generally priced much more cheaply - recently Apple shifted their Logic audio editing studio to the Mac App Store, and the software went from $800 to $200. Lowering the burden of entry makes this locked system more palatable. If I could download an Xbox 360 game in a restricted form for $50 versus the retail one for $120, I wouldn't hesitate to buy the digital version, and I'm sure a heck of a lot of other people would buy into the digital version too - even knowing that there was no way to recoup the money. Leave the retail versions as they are, unrestricted and free, and watch as digital acquisition moves from niche to gold standard. 

Sweeten the deal further. Make it so licenses can be transferred to other people - even at a dodgy cost of $5 or less and you've got a second hand market that drives post-sale profits directly to game makers and distribution channels that are no longer having any active involvement in making the game. If it was $5 to transfer a game license to your friend, he can still 'borrow' your copy of the game at an extremely negligible cost and devs and distributor benefit from the revenue that was non-existent before. Better yet, make it so a license can be shared from someone who owns the digital copy to his friends in a time-limited form. 24 hours with the full game as long as a friend owns it, then the option to simply pay the purchase price for the game that is already downloaded on your system. Keep your save file, continue your experience seamlessly after purchasing the game on your credit card.

At the end of the day, what is best for consumers is whatever is quickest and easiest. DRM-covered movie files shaft the end user because it limits the devices the user can watch their movie on, often the quality is limited by whatever arbitrary standards are required by the studios, and they are usually much more expensive than necessary. The same movie on Bittorrent (for example) will probably be higher quality, compatible with everything or easily converted, and easily shared. Look at the explosion in popularity the iTunes Music Store experienced once they finally convinced the record labels to drop DRM. People are willing to pay for content even when it is freely available, it's the willingness to offer it in a cheap and versatile way that stands as the impediment to making digital copies a true and extremely viable alternative to retail.

Not angry enough

Sony issued a response to the rumors that devs are jumping ship from the PS Vita to 3DS.

The issue with the PS Vita certainly isn't short-term developer support after launch, though weak software forecast will certainly disappoint sale growth. Look at the 3DS launch: it was known that devs were canning some titles, but others were simply being put in the cupboard to be released later on, presumably 'when the console was doing better'.

Nintendo had one advantage in this arena however; they had strong first party titles that were guaranteed system-sellers. Waiting until a post-Mario 3D Land/Mario Kart 7 3DS painted a much different picture and the sales certainly reflected that. The emergency price drop did little to mitigate industry watchers concerns, but it certainly led to healthy sales supported by desirable software. Metal Gear Solid and Resident Evil will certainly help support growth among the massive adult gamer market, but I don't necessarily believe they were system sellers. In the same way that Twilight Princess saw a Wii port for launch, and Halo 2 backwards compatibility was prioritised for Xbox 360, these consoles looked to supporting software to help cushion their otherwise-bare launches.

I am with Sony on this at the moment though; rumors of the PS Vita's death have been greatly exaggerated. It is too soon to write it off, and I certainly believe that the PS Vita will go on to be a minor success for Sony. However, not differentiating itself from smartphones; and rather attempting to be more like them as a class of hardware will only hurt it long-term. This is especially true when you look at Sony's smartphone business - PlayStation on Android via gaming focused smartphones may eventually replace the need for a dedicated PlayStation altogether. Sony need to embrace this rather than resist it, as cannibalisation of their own products should be okay versus the alternative: being beaten to it by a competitor.

Now, I do know that smartphone game consoles have done very poorly in the past. Nokia's N-Gage was a serious case of a company misjudging a market entirely. Sony have the expertise to make this work if they made the effort. Smartphone gaming has become an enormous market (virtually overnight) and they have already made moves to capitalise on this. However, their current efforts have been pretty poor - look at the awful build quality of the Xperia Play. The eventual merging of Sony's handheld game system and mobile phone markets was obvious from the launch of the original PSP, and as the years go on it is only becoming more obvious. Nintendo have chosen to continue their tried-and-tested strategy, and I believe that it will work for them. Nintendo also have extremely powerful leverage to sell hardware with their first-party library; whilst Sony have some decent IPs I don't believe it is enough to push strong sales.

Battery life remains the sticking point for smartphone gaming, but if Sony are prepared to release a dedicated console with 2-5 hours of play time then they're essentially putting themselves straight into smartphone territory. Touch screen controls hold back most meaningful play experiences on smartphones, but GTA 3 proves that developers are willing to see what can be done with what exists and try and make it work.

Where does it leave Sony when a smartphone can match (or best) the PS Vita spec-for-spec on paper, and have the additional power of being in the hands of ten times the number of consumers? This reality isn't far away. Controls hold the market back from totally breaking through though. But with products like the iCade to test the popularity of these physical input add-ons on smartphones, how far away is 'official' support?

Sony should be nipping this in the bud right now and releasing a PlayStation branded Xperia that makes a serious attempt at being a handheld console and a smartphone. Add a 3G modem-less model and sell it similar to the iPhone/iPod touch model, and they may have a serious contender for serious gamers dollars.

Actually playing games

Today I had a sudden feeling I haven't had in some time - I wanted to play a videogame. I had a sudden flash in my mind of running through the junkyard in Omnitopia in Secret of Evermore. Poor Square Enix USA, they didn't stand much of a chance.

Check this out for a stroll down memory lane.

Dead or...dead some more?

Eh??

Team Ninja are taking the sex and violence out of Dead or Alive.

Exciting news: this holiday season, play the exciting Settings Menu and see the visceral Title Splash in Dead or Alive 5: Attack of the Language Select Screen!